While users might not see a negative side to the recent array of unlimited plans offered by US carriers – which generally give all-you-can-eat vice calls and messaging, then sometimes data and other services, for a fixed monthly fee – analysts ABI Research are cautioning that the cost to the carriers might be more than just a few missed “unusual month” extreme bills from users.  While reduced customer churn and increased new subscriber numbers might come along as a result of the plans, ABI’s concern is that extra hammering of the network will end up stretching it perhaps to breaking point.

“Flat rate plans will test the limits of 3G networks, raising new challenges for operators.  Operators need to pay close attention to the capacity limitations of their 3G networks and the true cost of ‘all-you-can-eat’ data plans” Nadine Manjaro, senior analyst, ABI Research

Their doomsday scenario is that floods of SMS, picture and video messages could flood a carrier’s network and prevent successful voice call handling, guaranteed to frustrate users, while spam messages could also increase exponentially (though carriers usually have “fair use” clauses to take care of that).  However it saves its biggest warning for unlimited data access, which it foresees significantly increasing network utilisation and reducing per-subscriber data rates, or the number of subscribers able to access the network. 

It’s that, then, which would have the biggest impact on users themselves, ironically the reason networks have traditionally given for capping data rates – that a few individuals massively over-using the system ’spoil’ it for the rest – only with many more people legitimately believing they’re entitled to, and the network capable of sustaining, their increased use.  And with carriers fighting a price war to keep old subscribers and lure in new, it’s unlikely they’ll have the finances to boost capacity.

[via SlashPhone]