Over the past few days, shortages in Apple stores of the iPhone and semi-cryptic pronouncements by AT&T’s CEO have led many to believe that a 3G version of the cellphone is close to launching.  On the face of it, it seems a reasonable assumption; after all, why would Apple order more handsets and restock if their updated iPhone is inches from the cash register, and several analysts - notably PiperJaffray’s Gene Munster - have agreed.  However, other commentors believe the shortage is due not to careful stock management but from a thriving grey market, serving countries like China, India, Brazil and the Middle East with unlocked iPhones.   A “conservative” estimate suggests 15-20,000 US iPhones are being shipped out to places Apple has no official distribution deal with every week.

“Demand for iPhones outside the United States, particularly in emerging markets, is out of control and has reached the point where it has started to impact Apple’s normalized supply chain projections. It’s okay to have a delta of, say, 100,000 units or so per year between actual and forecast. International demand is driving that delta upwards of 1 million. That’s a whole different ball game for component sourcing, quality control and production ramp-up and some things are starting to come unstuck, even for a finely managed company like Apple” ‘Tantrum’ commentor

Earlier on in the year, questions were asked regarding apparent discrepancies between the number of iPhones reportedly sold and the number activated by carriers, with the difference amounting to around 1.3-million handsets.  Back then, analysts dismissed the idea of so many devices being used unlocked, and suggested instead that operators were carrying large stocks of unsold iPhones (particularly in the light of less-than-predicted European sales).  Now, it looks highly possible that Apple’s attempts to make the iPhone appear attractive have been, ironically, too successful, creating demand outside of the official supply chain with customers willing to pay over the odds for grey-market handsets.

Apple released the following statement: “We are working to replenish iPhone supplies as quickly as we can.  Our stores continue to receive shipments almost every day.”

[via mocoNews]